Bankroll
Kelly Criterion in practice: sizing bets when edges are uncertain
Full Kelly is theoretically optimal but practically dangerous when edge estimates carry noise. Here is how fractional Kelly sizing maps to realistic bankroll variance.
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+0.0%ROI
0-0Record
+0.0uUnits Won
0.0%Win Rate
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TRACK RECORD
The complete record.
20 picks tracked since July 2026.
ROI
+0.0%
since launch
Record
0-0
in progress
Units Won
+0.0u
0 settled
Win Rate
0.0%
excluding pushes
Avg Odds
+317
American
Avg EV
+4.3%
per pick
Total Picks
20
all sports
Active Picks
20
pending results
20 picks
| Date ↓ | Event | Bet | Odds ↕ | EV ↕ | Units ↕ | P&L ↕ | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23 | Flamengo vs. ChapecoenseSoccer · soccer_brazil_campeonato | Chapecoense ML | +640 | +7.9% | 6.2 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 23 | Remo vs. CorinthiansSoccer · soccer_brazil_campeonato | Remo ML | +580 | +3.9% | 3.3 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 16 | Santos vs. BotafogoSoccer · soccer_brazil_campeonato | Santos ML | +300 | +2.9% | 4.8 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 13 | Londrina vs. América MineiroSoccer · soccer_brazil_serie_b | Londrina ML | +310 | +5.8% | 9.4 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 13 | Halmstads BK vs. Djurgardens IFSoccer · soccer_sweden_allsvenskan | Draw ML | +620 | +5.8% | 4.6 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 12 | Bodø/Glimt vs. KFUMSoccer · soccer_norway_eliteserien | KFUM ML | +560 | +6.9% | 6.2 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 12 | IK Sirius vs. IF BrommapojkarnaSoccer · soccer_sweden_allsvenskan | IF Brommapojkarna ML | +400 | +6.5% | 8.1 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 12 | IK Start vs. SK BrannSoccer · soccer_norway_eliteserien | IK Start ML | +720 | +5.8% | 4.0 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 12 | Kristiansund BK vs. RosenborgSoccer · soccer_norway_eliteserien | Kristiansund BK ML | +450 | +4.8% | 5.4 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 12 | Cuiabá vs. São BernardoSoccer · soccer_brazil_serie_b | Cuiabá ML | +260 | +4.6% | 8.9 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 12 | Fortaleza vs. Atletico GoianienseSoccer · soccer_brazil_serie_b | Draw ML | +215 | +2.6% | 6.1 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 12 | Degerfors IF vs. Västerås SKSoccer · soccer_sweden_allsvenskan | Degerfors IF ML | +300 | +2.4% | 4.0 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 12 | Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles DodgersBaseball · baseball_mlb | Under 9.00 | -102 | +2.3% | 11.9 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 12 | FC Anyang vs. Incheon UnitedSoccer · soccer_korea_kleague1 | FC Anyang ML | +310 | +2.3% | 3.7 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 12 | IK Sirius vs. IF BrommapojkarnaSoccer · soccer_sweden_allsvenskan | Draw ML | +350 | +2.1% | 2.9 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 11 | Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis CardinalsBaseball · baseball_mlb | Atlanta Braves ML | +100 | +5.9% | 25.0 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 11 | Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis CardinalsBaseball · baseball_mlb | Atlanta Braves -1.50 | +160 | +5.3% | 16.5 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 11 | Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore OriolesBaseball · baseball_mlb | Kansas City Royals ML | +147 | +3.6% | 12.2 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 11 | Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati RedsBaseball · baseball_mlb | Chicago Cubs ML | -103 | +2.3% | 11.6 u | — | PENDING |
| Jul 11 | Philadelphia Phillies vs. Detroit TigersBaseball · baseball_mlb | Detroit Tigers ML | +128 | +2.2% | 8.7 u | — | PENDING |
MONTHLY REPORTS
Monthly statements.
Full accounting of every position, by month. View detailed statements →